Notes on Concavity, Convexity, Quasiconcavity and Quasiconvexity

This is just a quick and condensed note on the basic definitions and characterizations of concave, convex, quasiconcave and (to some extent) quasiconvex functions, with some examples

An alternative way to model merit good arguments

Besley (1988) uses a scaling approach to model merit good arguments in commodity tax policy. In this paper, I question this approach on the grounds that it produces 'wrong' recommendations--taxation (subsidisation) of merit (demerit) goods--whenever the demand for the (de)merit good is inelastic. I propose an alternative approach that does not suffer from this deficiency, and derive the ensuing first and second best tax rules, as well as the marginal cost expressions to perform tax reform analysis

A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi $t heta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi$t heta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage

Complementarities between mathematical and computational modeling : the case of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the mathematical model. Our main conclusion is that mathematical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenarios hard to analyze mathematically, formal models can be useful to verify and to explain the outcomes of computational models

The Causal effect of education on aggregate income

Empirical studies assume that the macro Mincer return on schooling is con- stant across countries. Using a large sample of countries this paper shows that countries with a better quality of education have on average relatively higher macro Mincer coeficients. As rich countries have on average better educational quality, differences in human capital between countries are larger than has been typically assumed in the development accounting literature. Consequently, factor accumulation explains a considerably larger share of income differences across countries than what is usually found

Social polarization : introducing distances between and within groups

The measurement of social polarization has received little attention from the literature. The only social polarization index that has been used to measure religious or ethnic polarization (the RQ index) has several shortcomings that are critically discussed in the paper. In particular, that index is not taking into account the existing distance between and within different groups. A couple of axiomatically characterized social polarization indices that overcome these limitations are presented. In the empirical section we show that the rankings of countries according to the levels of polarization change to a great extent when we replace the RQ index by the indices presented in this paper

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs

Is bundling anticompetitive?

I analyze the implications of bundling on price competition in a market for complementary products. Using a model of imperfect competition with product differentiation, I identify the incentives to bundle for two types of demand functions and study how they change with the size of the bundle. With an inelastic demand, bundling creates an advantage over uncoordinated rivals who cannot improve by bundling. I show that this no longer holds with an elastic demand. The incentives to bundle are stronger and the market outcome is symmetric bundling, the most competitive one. Profits are lowest and consumer surplus is maximized

User-friendly parallel computations with econometric examples

This paper shows how a high level matrix programming language may be used to perform Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping, estimation by maximum likelihood and GMM, and kernel regression in parallel on symmetric multiprocessor computers or clusters of workstations. The implementation of parallelization is done in a way such that an investigator may use the programs without any knowledge of parallel programming. A bootable CD that allows rapid creation of a cluster for parallel computing is introduced. Examples show that parallelization can lead to important reductions in computational time. Detailed discussion of how the Monte Carlo problem was parallelized is included as an example for learning to write parallel programs for Octave

Repeated games played in a network

Delayed perfect monitoring in an infinitely repeated discounted game is modelled by letting the players form a connected and undirected network. Players observe their immediate neighbors' behavior only, but communicate over time the repeated game's history truthfully throughout the network. The Folk Theorem extends to this setup, although for a range of discount factors strictly below 1, the set of sequential equilibria and the corresponding payoff set may be reduced. A general class of games is analyzed without imposing restrictions on the dimensionality of the payoff space. This and the bilateral communication structure allow for limited results under strategic communication only. As a by-product this model produces a network result; namely, the level of cooperation in this setup depends on the network's diameter, and not on its clustering coefficient as in other models